October 30, 2014

2014 Election Predictions - Quinn and Grimm will win

By Mark Wachtler

October 30, 2014. Chicago. (ONN) It’s that time again - time to make our predictions for the 2014 General Election. While our track record is impressive, we don’t always call the outcome exactly right. In a democracy with a secret ballot, anything can happen. This election, we’ve really gone out on a limb. If it’s possible for two candidates in the same race to be winners, then that’s our prediction in the race for Illinois Governor. We predict that incumbent Pat Quinn will receive the most votes, but the Libertarians and their candidate Chad Grimm will be the real winners.

Could Republican Stefanie Linares upset Illinois Senate President John Cullerton? We think so. Image courtesy of getvamos.com.

Welcome to Illinois’ 3-party system

If there is one result from this Tuesday’s election that will have the biggest impact on Illinois voters in the coming years, it may not be the outcome of the Governor’s race. Instead, it will be official declaration that Illinois is now a three-party system - Democrat, Republican and Libertarian. Once a candidate from any party receives 5% or more of the vote in a statewide election, that party and its candidates are recognized as a ‘major party’ in future elections.

The benefit, in addition to more money, more exposure, more credibility and more assistance from the Board of Elections, is that the party’s candidates no longer have to collect 20,000-plus ballot access signatures just to run for office. They will need to collect only a few hundred like their Republican and Democrat counterparts.

That means for the next two election cycles, Illinois Republicans won’t just have the Libertarians to deal with in five statewide races. There will be dozens and dozens of Libertarian candidates from one end of the ballot to the other and one end of the state to the other. Because we at the Illinois Herald predict that the current Libertarian candidate for Illinois Governor, Chad Grimm, will shock the political establishment and receive more than double the number of votes needed to break the two-party glass ceiling. And if he doesn’t do it, one of the other statewide Libertarian candidates surely will.


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Illinois Governor’s race

The ‘tangibles’, like nearly every poll in the state, insist that Republican Bruce Rauner will win the race for Illinois Governor next Tuesday. Incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn is literally the most unpopular Governor in America. Illinois has some of the worst economic numbers in the nation. The Chicago Machine’s own President Obama is nearly as unpopular. And there is going to be a nationwide Republican tidal wave of victories from coast to coast, giving the GOP control of both houses of Congress in Washington.

But the ‘intangibles’ are seemingly too much and too many for the Republican challenger to overcome. Billionaire Bruce Rauner and the Illinois GOP are somehow losing what should have been an easy win. And here’s how it’s happening. Keep in mind, in 2010 Gov. Quinn beat his Republican opponent by 32,000 votes. There were 3.7 million votes cast and five candidates on the ballot, including a Green, a Libertarian and an independent. Also keep in mind, Pat Quinn trailed by 3 to 8 percent in nearly every poll prior to Election Day, but he won anyway.

  • Three-way race - Normally, the Democrats kick the Greens and socialists off the ballot to keep them from taking Democrat votes. And the Republicans kick the Libertarians and Constitution Party off the ballot for the same reason. But this election, the Illinois Libertarian Party and its 44,000-plus ballot access signatures proved too much and voters will now have the rightful choice between the three parties’ candidates. In short, Democrat Quinn should receive the 200,000 Illinois Green votes this Tuesday. But Republican Rauner will not be the recipient of 200,000-plus Libertarian votes. Those Libertarian voters will be casting their ballots for Libertarian Chad Grimm.

  • Chad Grimm - In 2010, the Libertarian candidate self-destructed with a platform promising to overturn the Civil Rights Act and an end to welfare for the poor. But even so, he received 34,681 votes (0.93%). That alone is more than the 31,000 vote difference between 1st and 2nd place. Normally, like in previous Gubernatorial elections, the Illinois Libertarian garners at least 2% as the Green candidate did in 2010, or 100,000 votes. The independent in 2010 received 135,000 votes (3%). Chad Grimm is currently polling 5%, with a projection of 200,000 votes. We at the Illinois Herald predict Grimm will shock onlookers by capturing over 10% on Tuesday. With the vast majority of those votes coming from Republicans and independents, it seems nearly impossible for Rauner to find enough new Republican voters to replace them.
  • War on independents - Your author had the pleasure of talking to the State Chairman of the Illinois Constitution Party last week. Between independents like us at the Illinois Herald, the Green Party, Constitution Party, Veterans Party and the entire political opposition in the state of Illinois, there is an unprecedented anger and outrage at the GOP. When Illinois Republicans sent armed thugs to the homes of Libertarians, forcing them to sign affidavits against their will renouncing the Libertarian Party in an attempt to kick their slate of candidates off the ballot, the state’s political opposition saw visions of Communist Russia or Nazi Germany. This author believes the 270,000 independent and third party voters in Illinois are about to cast the biggest protest vote this state’s seen in a long time to show their anger over such despicable tactics, and much of it will go to Chad Grimm.
  • Pro Life activists mobilize - How many Pro Life voters are there in Illinois? Who knows. But it’s safe to say it’s probably well over 1 million. And when those grassroots activists mobilize, they become a very large voting block. Libertarian Chad Grimm is the only Pro Life candidate in the race and he’s concentrated nearly every cent of his recent influx of contributions reminding the state’s voters of that fact. While there wasn’t any organized effort within the Pro Life community, those forces are quietly and rapidly spreading the word grassroots-style that the Illinois Governors race is their opportunity to flex some Pro Life political muscle. Have you ever seen those Catholic nuns work the precincts and polling places on Election Day? Your author has. They know how to turn out the vote, rain, sleet or snow.
  • Mitt Romney syndrome - Apparently, the Illinois Republican Party didn’t learn the lesson of Mitt Romney. Main Street Americans represent a majority of voters here and across the country. They don’t like Wall Street billionaires like Mitt Romney and Bruce Rauner. And while voters dislike their current Democrat Governor, most would rather be robbed by their union neighbors and relatives than be robbed by a foreign multi-national corporation.

"The news shouldn't be left wing or right wing, conservative or liberal. It should be the news. It should be independent" - Mark Wachtler, Illinois Herald owner/editor

  • Election Day ‘irregularities’ - Illinois, a state with a Democratic Party super-majority and a history of political corruption, is already experiencing “irregularities”. One Republican State Representative candidate attempted to vote for himself during early voting in Cook County last week only to find that the electronic voting machine switched all of his votes from the Republican candidates to the Democrat candidates. The Board of Elections confirmed the problem and took the machine out of service, calling the vote-flipping action a “calibration error”.
  • 100,000 new Democrat voters - Three weeks ago, a coalition of Illinois progressive organizations announced they had registered over 100,000 new Cook County voters just in the last four months. The allegedly non-partisan groups admittedly targeted poor and African American communities in an attempt to register as many of what they termed, “our people”, as possible.

With the Illinois Governors race currently a dead heat, the Illinois Herald is going to go out on a limb and predict Governor Pat Quinn will win re-election by a larger margin that anyone currently foresees. And Libertarian Chad Grimm will shock the political landscape by garnering over ten percent, giving the Libertarian Party ‘major party status’ statewide for at least the next four years.

In other races, both nationally and here in Illinois, we predict the results will be as most currently expect them - a Republican tidal wave will sweep the GOP into power in both houses of Congress, including many races here in Illinois. Locally, Republicans will barely make a dent into the Democrat super-majority, but will retain their lone statewide office and even pick up a couple seats in the State Legislature. If readers want one crazy, wild-eyed, long shot prediction - watch for Republican Stefanie Linares to upset Illinois Senate President John Cullerton.


Recent Illinois Herald articles:

Will IL Constitution Party vote GOP or Libertarian?

Illinois Herald 2014 State Legislature Endorsements

No Endorsement in Race for Illinois Governor

Illinois Herald endorses 2 Greens for Congress



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